Housing Stats
January 15, 2010
The Housing Stats are In
As reported recently by the Institute for Supply Management the monthly index of manufacturing is on the rise. In November, the index was at 53.6 and by December, it has risen to 55.9. This was the fifth month in a row to see expansion and was the fastest pace of growth we have seen since April of 2006. Any reading above 50 signifies expansion.
Total construction fell 0.6% in November after dropping 0.5% in October as reported by the Commerce Department. This was much better than what economists had expected since they believed a decrease of .04% would occur.
Factory orders rose 1.1% in November reported by the Commerce Department, which is quite a bit more than economists had expected which was 0.5%. This marked the seventh gain in the last eight months, which follows a 0.6% increase in October alone.
The pending homes sales index an indicator that looks at the future based on signed contracts from the National Association of Realtors showed a decrease in November of 16%, which followed an increase of 3.7% in October. It is believed the decline seen in November was mainly due to the expiration of the tax credit for first time home buyers; however, this tax credit has been extended. The tax credit not only was extended for first time home buyers but also now includes move-up and repeat buyers.
Labor Department reports indicated no change in the unemployment rate in December, which is holding steady at 10%. However, employers cut 85,000 jobs. November payrolls showed that 4,000 jobs were gained which is the first gain seen since December of 2007.
Wholesalers increased their inventories by 1.5% in November as reported by the Commerce Department which was the largest gain seen since October 2004. Economists were wrong again since they had anticipated a drop of 0.2%. Sales at the wholesale level rose 3.3% in November, which was the eighth monthly gain in a row and the largest increase seen since January of 2008.
Indicators are looking good for the most part across the board with some areas of the country reporting better percentages in various areas including housing developments.
Housing Recovery
December 15, 2009
The recovery in the real estate market is still moving forward with a huge 7.4% in home sales in November via information from the National Association of REALTORS.
At this time, sales are up 44% over where they were a year ago and this does include detached single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperatives.
The sales are up not only here and the Tulsa real estate market but they are up all over the US and in every region. The Northeast say a 6.6% increase, the Midwest an 8.4% increase, the West an 11% increase, and in the South a 5% increase.
Sales were higher in all price ranges for the second month in a row. Over the last year, we did not see luxury homes or higher priced homes selling, but now they are once again getting new owners.
Homes that have sat on the market have decreased and unsold inventories are 16% below last years.
Chief economist of the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun, explained that the rush in home sales is due to the cut off of November 30 for the $8,000 first time buyer credit. The deadline was extended until June 30th for first time buyers until with an added credit repeat purchasers.
The president of the National Association of Realtors, Vicki Cox Golder, stated the combination of tax credits, low mortgage rates, and low prices has been an attractive environment for home buyers across the nation.
She stated, “It really doesn’t get any better for buyers,” if they have “secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”
The forecast by Fannie Mae for 2010 suggests that sales of existing homes in 2010 will increase another 10% and new homes can expect an increase of 26%. Like many others forecasting in the housing market, Fannie Mae sees mortgage rates rising but not so high that buyers will not purchase.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 30-year fixed rates to exceed 5.2% in the coming months, which is up from about 5% a couple of weeks back.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke believes higher mortgage rates are inevitable and Bernanke refinanced out of an adjustable-rate loan on his Washington D.C. home and into a more secure 30 year fixed rate around 5 percent.
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