Mortgage Applications Rose Week of June 25th
July 9, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported its seasonally adjusted composite index of mortgage applications for the week of June 25 rose 8.8%. Refinancing applications increased 12.6% while purchase volume declined 3.3%.
An increase of 0.8% was seen in April with a 0.1% decrease in March on The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index.
The National Association of Realtors accounted that the pending home sales index, which is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, decreased 30% in May while a revision was made in April with a 6% increase.
Spending for total construction declined 0.2% to $841.9 billion in May, after a revised 2.3% rise in April. Economists had predicted a larger drop of 0.5% in May.
Consumer confidence index declined to 52.9 in the month of June while the revised number for May was 62.7. Economist believed the reading was going to be 62.8. The index was benchmarked in 1985 at 100; this year was chosen, as it was neither a peak nor a low in consumer confidence.
The Institute for Supply Management stated that the monthly composite index of manufacturing activity was 56.2 in June while in May it was at 59.7. Any reading above 50 is a sign of expansion. This made 11th months of expansion in a row.
In May, factory orders declined 1.4%, which was more than the 0.5% decrease from what economists had anticipated. This was the largest drop since March 2009, which ended 8 straight monthly gains.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 13,000 to 472,000 for the week that ended on June 26. Continuing claims for the week that ended on June 19 increased by 43,000 to 4.62 million. The unemployment rate decreased in June to 9.5% from a 9.7% in the month of May.
Economic calendar upcoming include reports on wholesale trade on July 9 and chain store sales on July 7.
Home Pending Sales Up Over 22 Percent
June 7, 2010
The pending home sales index reported by the National Association of Realtors showed a forward-looking indicator, which is based on contracts signed increased 6% for the month of April following a revised increase in March of 7.1%. On a year-over-year basis, showed pending sales are up 22.4%.
The monthly composite index of manufacturing activity was at 59.7 in May as reported by the Institute for Supply Management following 60.4 in April. Any reading above 50 is a sign of expansion. This was a 10th month of expansion in a row.
Total construction spending increased 2.7 percent in April to $869 billion after an increase in March of 0.4 percent. The gain in April was the highest seen since August of 2008.
Factors orders increased in April 1.2% which was below the economists expectation of 1.8%. On the good note, it was the 8th month in a row a gain was seen after a 1.7% in March.
The monthly composite index of non-manufacturing activity was 55.4 in May as reported by the Institute for Supply Management as it was in April. Any reading above 50 is a sign of expansion. Economists believed a reading of 55.6 would occur, but with this reading, this was the 5th month in a row for growth.
The first quarter as reported by the Labor Department rose at an annual rate of 2.8% while labor costs fell at 1.3% annual rate.
Unemployment benefit initial claims fell a whopping 10,000 to end up at 453,000 for the week ending on May 29. Continuing claims for the week ending on May 22 rose to 4.66 million with 31,000 claims added. In May, 431,000 jobs were added by employers while in April that figure was 290,000. This in itself decreased the unemployment rate seen in April of 9.9% to May at 9.7%.
Reports are due on the wholesale trade on June 9 with international trade reports on June 10 and on June 11 retail sales.
Mortgage Applications Rise Again
May 17, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ending May 7 rose 3.9%. Refinancing applications jumped 14.8%. Purchase volume decreased 9.5%.
The Commerce Department said wholesalers increased their inventories by 0.4% in March, following a 0.6% rise in February. Sales at the wholesale level rose a robust 2.4% in March, marking the 12th straight monthly gain.
The trade deficit increased 2.5% to $40.4 billion in March, from a revised $39.4 billion gap in February. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $40.1 billion. Exports rose 3.2% to $147.87 billion. Imports increased 3.1% to $188.3 billion.
Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, following an upwardly revised 2.1% increase in March. Economists had anticipated retail sales to rise 0.2% in April. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 8.8%.
Industrial production at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities increased 0.8% in April, following a 0.1% gain in March. It was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. The overall factory-operating rate rose to 73.7% of capacity in April, the highest reading since November 2008.
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in March, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in February. All components showed nearly uniform increases in March: manufacturers up 0.3%, retailers up 0.4%, wholesalers up 0.4%.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 444,000 for the week ending May 8. Continuing claims for the week ending May 1 rose by 12,000 to 4.627 million.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on the housing market index on May 17, housing starts on May 18 and the index of leading economic indicators on May 20.
Mortgage Bankers Association Index Rose
March 8, 2010
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ending February 26 rose 14.6% to approximately 629.9. Purchase volume increased 9% to 214.5. Refinancing applications jumped 17.2% to 3,054.3.
Consumer spending did indeed rise 0.5% to approximately $52.4 billion in January, slightly more than economists had anticipated. Personal income had increased 0.1% to right at $11,400,000,000 billion.
The Institute for Supply Management reported that the monthly index of manufacturing activity was 56.5 in February after reaching 58.4 during January. Nevertheless, it was the seventh straight month of expansion. A reading above 50 generally signals expansion.
The Commerce Department reported that total construction spending fell 0.6% in January after falling 1.2% during the month of December. Economists had expected a decrease of 0.7%.
The monthly index of non-manufacturing activity rose to 53 in February from 50.5 in the month of January. A reading above 50 usually signals expansion. Economists had anticipated a reading of 51. The reading was the highest since October 2007.
The National Association of Realtors reported that its pending home sales index, a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts, fell 7.6% in January after a revised 0.8% increase in December.
The Labor Department reported productivity rose at an annual rate of 6.9% for our fourth quarter. Labor costs fell at an annual rate of 5.9%.
Factory orders rose approximately 1.7% in January, slightly below the 1.8% increase economists had anticipated. It was the fifth straight gain and follows a 1% increase in December.
The unemployment rate held at approximately 9.7% during February. Employers cut approximately 36,000 jobs in February, far fewer than expected. The four-week average for continuing jobless claims fell 134,000 to 4.500,000 million jobless claims.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on wholesale trade on March 10, international trade on March 11 and retail sales on March 12
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Unemployment Rate Fell
February 11, 2010
Good news hit the airwaves when the unemployment rate in January fell to 9.7 percent a small drop from 10 percent, but a welcome change. Around 20,000 jobs were cut this month, which is a far cry from the amount in saw in December, which was 150,000. The jobless claims over the last 4 weeks average saw a decrease from 4.618 million to 51,250.
The monthly index of activity in the manufacturing industry as reported by the Institute for Supply Management was an increase from 54.9 in December to 58.4 in January. This is a good sign as it is the fastest growth seen since the summer of 2004 and the sixth month of expansion in a row. A show of more than 50 signals expansion.
Spending in the construction sector fell just a bit over 1 percent in December after down turning in November of the same percentage of 1.2 percent. It was speculated by economists to see a .5 percent decrease.
In the non-manufacturing sector in the United States, January saw a rise to 50.5 in January after in December seeing a revised 49.8. Once again, any reading over 50 shows expansion. This time economists were wrong again expecting a reading of 51.
Pending home sales index as reported by the National Association of Realtors, which was based on contracts that have been signed showed a rise of 1 percent in the month of December. At this time a year ago, the amount of homes sales was up 11 percent.
The seasonally adjusted index seen by the Mortgage Bankers Association for mortgage application during the last week of January saw an increase of 21 percent to 620.7. An increase of 10.3 percent was seen in the purchase volume bringing it to 237.8. Refinancing applications increased a great amount to 2,854.8, which was a 26.3 percent increase.
Productivity increased as stated by the Labor Department at a yearly rate at 6.2 percent in the 4th quarter, which followed a 3rd quarter increase of 7.2 percent. Overall, labor costs decreased at a yearly rate of 4.4 percent.
Factory orders was up 1 percent in December as reported by the Commerce Department, which was double the increase economists believed of 0.5 percent. This was the fourth time in a row we saw a gain and it followed a 1 percent increase in November, which was revised.
Construction spending as reported by the Commerce Department decreased 1.2 percent in December after a decrease of 1.2 percent in November. Economist believed a 0.5 decrease would be seen.
New economic calendars will be reporting on wholesale trade on February 9, February 11 is for retail sales reports and February 12 consumer sentiment.
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Home Sales Drop in December 2009
February 2, 2010
Even though November 2009 reported home sales being up over 7%. Existing home sales fell 16.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units from 6.54 million units in November. The drop was largely due to the anticipated expiration of a tax incentive for first-time homebuyers, which has since been extended and expanded. The inventory of unsold homes on the market fell 7% to 3.3 million, a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace.
A decline of around 10% was the industry consensus.
Here’s the full announcement from the National Association of Realtors
The Commerce Department announced that gross domestic product — the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S. — increased at an annual rate of 5.7% in the fourth quarter of 2009. It was the second consecutive quarter of growth and the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003.
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in November. It was the sixth consecutive monthly gain and follows a 0.4% increase in October. On a year-over-year basis, the gauge was down 5.3% from November 2008.
The consumer confidence index rose to 55.9 in January from an upwardly revised 53.6 in December. The index was bench marked at 100 in 1985, a year chosen because it was neither a peak nor a trough in consumer confidence.
Orders for durable goods — items expected to last three or more years — rose 0.3% in December after a 0.2% increase in November. Excluding volatile transportation-related goods, orders posted a monthly gain of 0.9%.
New home sales fell 7.6% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000 units from an upwardly revised rate of 370,000 units in November.
Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 8,000 to 470,000 in the week ending January 23. Continuing claims for the week ending January 16 fell by 57,000 to 4.6 million.
Upcoming on the economic calendar are reports on construction spending on February 1, pending home sales on February 2 and factory orders on February 4.
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REALTORS Help Haiti
January 24, 2010
Dear Fellow REALTORS®, by now, we all know about the severe devastation caused by the earthquakes in Haiti. NAR is helping answer the calls for help in two key ways.
First, NAR is contributing $550,000 to charities that will help bring much-needed supplies and care to the people of Haiti. Included in that sum is $100,000 donated by our REALTOR Benefits® Program partner, Lowe’s®, which NAR matched at $100,000. From they will donate $50,000 to The Harvest of Haiti, founded by REALTOR® Patrick Moore, a 2007 Good Neighbor Award winner. Patrick has done great work for several years in Haiti supporting orphans, delivering clean water and providing medical care for more than 3,500 people a year.
NAR is also contributing $500,000 to the Clinton Bush Haiti Fund, which is supporting earthquake recovery efforts with immediate relief and long-term support to earthquake survivors. For up-to-the-minute information about these efforts, visit NAR’s Haiti relief page on REALTOR.org.
Second, NAR is asking for our support and accepting donations from REALTORS® through the REALTORS® Relief Foundation. Please consider giving today. To make a donation, go to , and complete the contribution form.
Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. once said: “An individual has not started living until he can rise above the narrow confines of his individualistic concerns to the broader concerns of all humanity.”
Our fellow REALTORS® have earned a reputation for our compassionate work on behalf of others – both here in the United State and around the world. I hope you will join our latest efforts and bring that same compassion and hope to people who desperately need it.
As we all know this is a great cause, and many Haitian families and children are in great need. I must say if you have not done your part as a REALTOR® I would highly recommend taking a few minutes and contributing to this REALTORS® Relief Foundation and please take action now as Haiti really needs all of the worlds support.
I have asked my fellow Tulsa area REALTORS®, to please take a moment and help the Haitian families and children as they are such need, especially with the current tragedy and historic devastation.
So, let’s all stand up as REALTORS® not only Tulsa area REALTORS®, but throughout the nation with the compassionate hearts we are known for and do our part to help this country in need.
Once again, please take a few moments, and go to www. realtor.org/relief to make your donation.
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Housing Stats
January 15, 2010
The Housing Stats are In
As reported recently by the Institute for Supply Management the monthly index of manufacturing is on the rise. In November, the index was at 53.6 and by December, it has risen to 55.9. This was the fifth month in a row to see expansion and was the fastest pace of growth we have seen since April of 2006. Any reading above 50 signifies expansion.
Total construction fell 0.6% in November after dropping 0.5% in October as reported by the Commerce Department. This was much better than what economists had expected since they believed a decrease of .04% would occur.
Factory orders rose 1.1% in November reported by the Commerce Department, which is quite a bit more than economists had expected which was 0.5%. This marked the seventh gain in the last eight months, which follows a 0.6% increase in October alone.
The pending homes sales index an indicator that looks at the future based on signed contracts from the National Association of Realtors showed a decrease in November of 16%, which followed an increase of 3.7% in October. It is believed the decline seen in November was mainly due to the expiration of the tax credit for first time home buyers; however, this tax credit has been extended. The tax credit not only was extended for first time home buyers but also now includes move-up and repeat buyers.
Labor Department reports indicated no change in the unemployment rate in December, which is holding steady at 10%. However, employers cut 85,000 jobs. November payrolls showed that 4,000 jobs were gained which is the first gain seen since December of 2007.
Wholesalers increased their inventories by 1.5% in November as reported by the Commerce Department which was the largest gain seen since October 2004. Economists were wrong again since they had anticipated a drop of 0.2%. Sales at the wholesale level rose 3.3% in November, which was the eighth monthly gain in a row and the largest increase seen since January of 2008.
Indicators are looking good for the most part across the board with some areas of the country reporting better percentages in various areas including housing developments.
Housing Recovery
December 15, 2009
The recovery in the real estate market is still moving forward with a huge 7.4% in home sales in November via information from the National Association of REALTORS.
At this time, sales are up 44% over where they were a year ago and this does include detached single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums, and cooperatives.
The sales are up not only here and the Tulsa real estate market but they are up all over the US and in every region. The Northeast say a 6.6% increase, the Midwest an 8.4% increase, the West an 11% increase, and in the South a 5% increase.
Sales were higher in all price ranges for the second month in a row. Over the last year, we did not see luxury homes or higher priced homes selling, but now they are once again getting new owners.
Homes that have sat on the market have decreased and unsold inventories are 16% below last years.
Chief economist of the National Association of Realtors Lawrence Yun, explained that the rush in home sales is due to the cut off of November 30 for the $8,000 first time buyer credit. The deadline was extended until June 30th for first time buyers until with an added credit repeat purchasers.
The president of the National Association of Realtors, Vicki Cox Golder, stated the combination of tax credits, low mortgage rates, and low prices has been an attractive environment for home buyers across the nation.
She stated, “It really doesn’t get any better for buyers,” if they have “secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”
The forecast by Fannie Mae for 2010 suggests that sales of existing homes in 2010 will increase another 10% and new homes can expect an increase of 26%. Like many others forecasting in the housing market, Fannie Mae sees mortgage rates rising but not so high that buyers will not purchase.
The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts 30-year fixed rates to exceed 5.2% in the coming months, which is up from about 5% a couple of weeks back.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke believes higher mortgage rates are inevitable and Bernanke refinanced out of an adjustable-rate loan on his Washington D.C. home and into a more secure 30 year fixed rate around 5 percent.
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